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What each model says
| kn | Today | 17 Sat | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 09 | 12 | 15 | 18 | |
| Velmonda blend | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| NCEP NBM CONUSlocal | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 6 |
| GEM HRDPS CONTINENTALlocal | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| NCEP HRRR CONUSlocal | 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 4 |
| NCEP NAM CONUSlocal | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| ECMWF IFSregional | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| GFS SEAMLESSregional | 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 4 |
| GEM GLOBALregional | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
outside rangeclosein rangestrong
Raw wind from each model, three-hourly. The top row is the Velmonda blend, the corrected number we actually publish. A dot means the model gives no value for that hour.
Velmonda blend
±2.4 kn
+1.7 kn · 550 h
The blend is corrected against measurements here; the models below are raw. That correction is part of why the blend wins; the comparison between the models themselves is fair.
Compare the models
| Model | off by | bias | hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| GEM GLOBALregional · 15 km | ±1.8 | -0.4 · reads low | 291 |
| ECMWF IFSregional · 9 km | ±1.9 | +0.8 · reads high | 291 |
| ECMWF AIFS025 SINGLE | ±2.2 | +0.4 · reads high | 272 |
| ECMWF IFS025 | ±2.3 | +1.5 · reads high | 272 |
| DWD ICON | ±2.4 | +1.3 · reads high | 272 |
| NCEP NBM CONUSlocal · 2.5 km | ±2.5 | +1.9 · reads high | 291 |
| GEM HRDPS CONTINENTALlocal · 2.5 km | ±2.5 | +1.6 · reads high | 291 |
| NCEP NAM CONUSlocal · 3 km | ±2.9 | +2.4 · reads high | 291 |
| NCEP HRRR CONUSlocal · 3 km | ±3.3 | +2.8 · reads high | 291 |
| GFS SEAMLESSregional · 13 km | ±3.4 | +3.0 · reads high | 550 |
GEM GLOBAL is the closest raw model at this spot right now (±1.8 kn).